The library

What is actually known about why people and companies do what they do, each entry graded honestly. Some hold up. Some are argued over. Some are famous and false. Every one names its source, and the shelf grows every week.

Corrections

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Six to begin with.

Solow's productivity paradoxholds up The McNamara fallacyholds up Spence's signalling theoryholds up Parkinson's law of trivialityholds up The curse of knowledgeholds up Via negativa, subtraction beats additionholds up

Famous, but false

The 10,000 hour rulefamous, but false The Hawthorne effectfamous, but false The Maslow pyramidfamous, but false The Mehrabian mythfamous, but false The Stanford prison experimentfamous, but false

Real, but debated

A&W's third pound burgerdebated Affective forecastingdebated Algorithmic monoculture in hiringdebated Attention residuedebated Brooks's lawdebated Easy money, the bead tradedebated Field and Binet: the 60/40 ruledebated Heidi versus Howarddebated Jazz improvisation in the fMRI scannerdebated Listerine, the asset was already in the buildingdebated Loss aversiondebated Motivation crowding out, the blood donor studydebated Obliquitydebated Omission biasdebated Parkinson's law, the one that is not about deadlinesdebated Peter Thiel's contrarian questiondebated Reciprocity, the chocolate studydebated Rory Sutherland: the opposite of a good ideadebated Schlitz, saying what everyone doesdebated Solomon's paradoxdebated The Abilene paradoxdebated The Cincinnatus patterndebated The framing effectdebated The jam study and choice overloaddebated The Jevons paradoxdebated The Lindy effectdebated The marshmallow testdebated The minority ruledebated The ostrich effectdebated The Peltzman effectdebated The Peter Principledebated The Pygmalion effectdebated The Shirky Principledebated The winner's cursedebated Thin-slice judgementdebated

Holds up

Adam Smith's pin factoryholds up Antifragility and the Shackleton caseholds up Apollo 13 and improvisation under constraintholds up Avis, the strength in admitting weaknessholds up Berkson paradoxholds up Black swans and the turkey problemholds up Byron Sharp: penetration beats loyaltyholds up Charisma is learnable, and misleadingholds up Chesterton's fenceholds up Cialdini's liking principleholds up Confirmation bias in evaluationholds up Conway's lawholds up Culture fit as class signalingholds up Defensive decision-makingholds up Diamond Shreddies, the frame is the valueholds up Do failed founders do better next timeholds up Double jeopardyholds up Everest 1996, does it get saidholds up Goodhart's law: rewarded metrics get gamedholds up Google's Project Oxygen: do managers matter?holds up Haidt's elephant and riderholds up Hindsight biasholds up Hoover's free flights, 1992holds up Implementation intentionsholds up Information cascadesholds up Interview anxiety corrupts the signalholds up Kahneman and Klein: when expert intuition worksholds up Kennedy's ExComm and the Cuban missile crisisholds up Little's Lawholds up Moral hazardholds up Natural frequenciesholds up Negativity biasholds up Normalization of devianceholds up Norman doors, blame the designholds up Ogilvy and the Rolls-Royce electric clockholds up Outcome biasholds up Parkinson's law of trivialityholds up Pattern noise, why two interviewers meet different peopleholds up Placebic reasonsholds up Regression to the meanholds up Simpson's paradoxholds up Skin in the game, Hammurabi's codeholds up Solow's productivity paradoxholds up Sony and the silo effectholds up Spence's signalling theoryholds up Stack ranking and the Microsoft collapseholds up Subutai and the Mongol meritocracyholds up Survivorship biasholds up Tacit knowledge, the articulation trapholds up Tetlock and the limits of expert predictionholds up The anchoring effectholds up The Asch conformity experimentsholds up The Barnum effectholds up The Chinese imperial examinationsholds up The cold start problemholds up The curse of knowledgeholds up The decoy effectholds up The default effect: opt in versus opt outholds up The endowment effectholds up The fundamental attribution errorholds up The good face, Moneyballholds up The halo effectholds up The hot-cold empathy gapholds up The IKEA effectholds up The iron law of projects: the Sydney Opera Households up The law of small numbersholds up The lemons problemholds up The Matthew Effectholds up The McNamara fallacyholds up The mere exposure effectholds up The music lab, success is partly luckholds up The peak-end ruleholds up The Picturephone and the S-curveholds up The planning fallacyholds up The pratfall effectholds up The replication crisisholds up The Ringelmann effect, the hidden tax on team sizeholds up The Roman cursus honorumholds up The strength of weak tiesholds up The sunk cost fallacyholds up The tired crew that beat the fresh oneholds up The Venetian Arsenaleholds up The village that would not boil its waterholds up The wisdom of crowdsholds up The Wright brothers and Langleyholds up Tournament theory, the prize is for everyone elseholds up Via negativa, subtraction beats additionholds up What actually predicts job performanceholds up

The Saturday letters

Every Saturday, one idea worth your time, with an honest account of how far the evidence really goes and where it stops. Free, a few minutes to read, and it leaves you with questions rather than instructions.