Researchers have tested this many times, in different places, over many years, and they keep finding the same result. This one is safe to trust.
Selection researchers kept finding the same troubling pattern in interviews. A candidate's anxiety, how nervous they were, measurably lowered their interview scores, while later studies following hired candidates found it had little to do with how well they then did the job. In other words, two people equally capable would score differently if one was more anxious, and the more anxious one would lose, even though anxiety in a high-pressure interview says little about performance in the actual role. Now consider the popular idea of the deliberately tough interview, the stress interview designed to rattle candidates and see how they hold up. It cranks up the variable that corrupts the measurement. What it reveals is who is best at staying composed while being deliberately unsettled by a stranger, which for most jobs is not the job.
A nervous candidate tends to score lower whatever their ability, so anything that increases their anxiety makes your read less accurate, not more. The tough, high-pressure interview feels rigorous, like you are stress-testing people, but mostly it tests tolerance for artificial pressure applied by a stranger, a skill that rarely matches the real work. Unless the job itself involves performing under that kind of hostile scrutiny, a deliberately stressful interview is not measuring what you think. Calmer conditions, where a capable person can actually show you what they can do, give you a truer signal than a manufactured ordeal.
Source: McCarthy and Goffin, Measuring job interview anxiety: beyond weak knees and sweaty palms, Personnel Psychology, 2004. A later meta-analysis by Powell, Stanley and Brown, 2018, found a modest negative correlation between interview anxiety and interview performance, and studies following hired candidates have found interview anxiety largely unrelated to later job performance.
Laszlo Bock, 2015
On designing hiring that measures the work, not the candidate's tolerance for theatre.
Every Saturday, one idea worth your time, with an honest account of how far the evidence really goes and where it stops. Free, a few minutes to read, and it leaves you with questions rather than instructions.
Draw your own card. It does not take long, and it rewards taking your time.