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    The Barnum effect

    holds up

    Researchers have tested this many times, in different places, over many years, and they keep finding the same result. This one is safe to trust.

    A psychologist gave a class of students what he told them was a personalized personality analysis, based on a test they had taken. Each student read their own individual profile and rated how accurately it described them. On average, they rated it 4.26 out of 5, remarkably accurate. Then he revealed the trick: every student had received the exact same profile, word for word. It was stitched together from vague, flattering, universally true statements, lines like you have a great deal of unused capacity, at times you are extroverted and sociable, while at other times you are reserved. Each student had read those same words and felt personally seen. The vagueness was the point. The mind fills in the specifics and mistakes the filling for accuracy.

    A description can feel like it was written precisely for you and still be true of almost everyone, because your mind supplies the personal details and then credits the description for them. This is exactly how most personality tests, horoscopes, and cold readings work, and it means the feeling of accuracy proves nothing about whether something is really measuring you. When a result about yourself feels uncannily right, that is worth a second look, not automatic belief. The best mirror is one whose statements could be wrong, and sometimes are, not one so vague it cannot fail.

    Source: Forer, 1949, Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology.

    The book, if you want to go further

    Thinking, Fast and Slow

    Daniel Kahneman, 2011

    On how eagerly we accept a story that flatters and fits, and call it insight.

    Draw your own card. It does not take long, and it rewards taking your time.