The Abilene paradox

Researchers agree this effect is real. They do not agree on how strong it is, and that argument is still going on. So you can trust the direction, but not any exact number.

On a brutal July afternoon in Coleman, Texas, a family sat on a porch playing dominoes in a hundred degree heat, perfectly content. Then the father-in-law suggested driving to Abilene for dinner, fifty three miles away, in a car with no air conditioning. The son-in-law thought it was a terrible idea, but his wife said it sounded good, so he said it sounded good, and the mother-in-law agreed too. Four people drove a hundred and six miles through a dust storm to eat bad cafeteria food. When they got back, exhausted, someone finally admitted they had not wanted to go. Neither had anyone else, including the man who suggested it. He had only proposed it because he thought the others were bored. A management professor published the story in 1974 and called it the Abilene paradox. It is worth being clear that this is an observation and a name for something recognisable, not a controlled experiment.

This is not the same as pressure to conform. Nobody pressured anyone in that car. It is a room full of people politely implementing a decision that not one of them supports, because each believes they are the only one with doubts. Organisations do this constantly. The project everyone privately thinks is wrong. The meeting nobody wants. The strategy that survives because disagreeing feels rude rather than because anyone believes it. The way to catch it costs nothing: before committing, ask each person to say privately whether they would choose this, and read the answers before anyone speaks.

Source: Harvey, 1974, Organizational Dynamics. A named observation rather than an experimental result, widely recognised in practice.

Draw your own card. It does not take long, and it rewards taking your time.